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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though experts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, analysts suggest that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.